Thursday, October 14, 2010

My Postseason Musings aka I Want a Rangers vs Giants World Series

The 2010 American and National League Championship Series are, in my opinion, the most captivating postseason series Major League Baseball has had in years.  With the Phillies' Roy Halladay and the Giants' Tim Lincecum on the mound in game one of the NLCS (one of the greatest postseason pitching match-ups ever), it is impossible to predict which team will be victorious, but one thing is for certain, these two pitchers know how to make history.  Furthermore, the camaraderie and chemistry in Texas (i.e. the ginger ale celebration and the support the Rangers showed their manager) is what being a great team is all about and is a story that captivates fans and keeps people tuned in to playoff baseball.  While most people are predicting a repeat of last year's Phillies vs. Yankees World Series, neither team is a shoo-in for the title of repeat league champion.  Here is how I think the Giants can beat the Phillies and the Rangers can beat the Yankees:

(stats courtesy of http://espn.go.com/mlb/)

San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies:

After sweeping the Reds in the NLDS, most baseball enthusiasts are in agreement that nothing can stop the Phillies from going back to the World Series for the third year in a row.  I am not writing the Giants off that quickly, however, and believe that San Francisco has a decent shot at going to the World Series this year.  It is safe to say that the Giants have one of the best pitching staffs in all of Major League Baseball.  San Francisco's three main starters, Tim Lincecum aka The Freak (who, by the way, dropped an F-bomb on live TV twice in one week), Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez, had an ERA of 1.23 in the NLDS, and Sanchez was the only one of those starters to give up an earned run to the Braves.  While the Phillies are definitely a better hitting team than the Braves were this season, Philadelphia only hit .212 with one home run against the Reds, whose starting three pitchers had an ERA of 3.94 in the regular season and 8.36 in the NLDS.  If the Phillies could not hit for power or average against the Reds rotation, how are they going to score runs against a much superior Giants staff, whose three NLDS starters had a combined regular season ERA of 3.21?  While the Giants, who batted .212 in the NLDS against the Braves, are not going to be hitting balls out of the park against the likes of Halladay, Hammels and Oswalt, they can play small ball to get base runners.  If leadoff man Andres Torres can bunt up the third-base line, a 34 year old, injured Polanco, might not be able to make a play.  Torres is a threat to steal bases and he can set up potential RBI situations for the big bats, Buster Posey and Pat Burrell.  With the three pitching match-ups planned for the first three games of the series, one run can mean the difference in each game.  Unlike in the steroid years of the past, the 2010 NLCS will be all about the pitcher and playing small ball.


  Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees

A big question mark for the Yankees this year has been the team's starting pitching.  Their only consistent pitcher has been CC Sabathia, and while they swept the twins in the ALDS, the Texas Rangers offense is much more threatening than the anemic Twins lineup (one that was missing 2006 MVP award winner Justin Morneau).  With the fantastic pitching of Cliff Lee (who is undefeated in the postseason), and Cliff Lee Jr. (oh, I mean CJ Wilson), all the Rangers have to do is get Josh Hamilton, who batted .111 with no home runs in the ALDS, back to his pre-September form, and Texas is in good shape to blow the Yankees out of the water.  The question of how to get Josh Hamilton's bat back is an easy one to answer.  With Vlad Guerrero having a sub-par ALDS, batting .263 with no home runs and one RBI, Hamilton was not getting any pitches to hit. If a powerful bat follows Hamilton in the lineup, he will see better pitches, more strikes, and less junk.  No pitcher will want to pitch around the number three hitter, Hamilton, to get to the clean-up hitter if the number four batter is a threat to blast one out of the park.  The lack of good pitches to hit, combined with a month of sitting on the bench, left Hamilton with little hope of putting up big numbers in the Division Series.  Now that Hamilton has gotten the opportunity to warm-up, his bat should be all ready for the Championship Series against the Yankees.  What manager Ron Washington needs to do is rearrange the batting order so that his number three hitter is protected.  Move Guerrero, who is not hitting for power, down to the number six spot in the lineup, and move Ian Kinsler, who batted .444 with 3 home runs and 6 RBI in the ALDS, to the clean-up spot, with the always dangerous Nelson Cruz, who batted .400 with 3 home runs and 3 RBI, hitting fifth.  With those changes and a great pitching rotation, I believe the Rangers are unstoppable, even against an all-star lineup like the Yankees.

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Humor(dor) the Skeptics, Bring in a Third Party

I have to apologize for the amount of time that has passed since my last post.  I went on vacation, I have been looking for a job, and quite frankly, I did not have that much to talk about.  Things were pretty uneventful in the world of Major League Baseball and everything was running smoothly.  However, while watching both the Red Sox vs Yankees and Giants vs Rockies on Friday night, two incidents occurred that gave me incentive to start blogging again. 

I will start with the near heart attack I suffered as Mike Lowell got hit in the face, and subsequently hit the dirt, while trying to field a ground ball that took a terrible hop.  The baseball gods need to give Lowell a break. The poor guy fought to get playing time the entire first half of the season, is only playing now because half the Red Sox starting lineup is on the DL, is retiring at the end of the year and is playing the last few games of his career.  Now he is sitting on the bench indefinitely along with the rest of the 2010 Red Sox, but hopefully he will be back in the starting lineup tonight or tomorrow.  Mike Lowell brings a lot to the table for the Red Sox.  He is definitely a better than average hitter and although his range in the field is not what it used to be, he gets the job done at first base.  The Red Sox need him right now.  Although it is unlikely that the Sox will be making the playoffs this year, they are not yet mathematically eliminated from securing the Wild Card, and I'm an optimist.  If this series with the Yankees is any indication, there is a slight pulse in the injury-ridden body that is the 2010 Boston Red Sox.  As the great (Yankee) catcher Yogi Berra once said, "It ain't over till its over."

Moving on.  All season there has been an interesting rumor circulating throughout the Major Leagues concerning the Colorado Rockies.  A rumor started by Giant's broadcaster Jon Miller in this interview: http://www.knbr.com/portals/3/podcasts/murphmac/0708jonmiller.MP3.  Due to the high altitude and thin, dry air in Denver, baseballs dry up and shrink, allowing them to travel greater distances, which in turn increases the home run frequency at the Rockies' home park, Coors Field.  To combat this, the Rockies began storing baseballs in a humidor in 2002 to moisten them up and weigh them down.  According to USA Today, the number of home runs and runs scored at Coors Field has greatly decreased since the beginning of the humidor era.  However, a rumor that the Rockies are using non-humidor balls in opportune moments is now being disseminated by many in baseball, including the San Francisco Giants.  The rumor states that the Rockies will mix non-humidor or "juiced" baseballs in with the mandated humidor balls and then use those "juiced" baseballs when they need to score runs in the later innings of a game.  At first I thought the rumor to be completely ridiculous, but I did some research nonetheless.  While I do not believe this rumor to be 100% true, this is what I have discovered: There is no third party responsible for putting all the baseball's in the humidor and then making sure only those baseballs are used in the game.  It is up to the Rockies organization to be honest and only use humidor balls, meaning it is only too easy for them to cheat.  Furthermore, according to the Rockies official web site, the team has hit 167 home runs this season and 103 of them have been hit at Coors Field.  While home field advantage could be one explanation for why the Rockies have hit 103 home runs at home and only 64 on the road, hitting almost twice as many home runs at home is quite an advantage.
What really makes this rumor worth talking about after an entire season is Friday night's Giants vs. Rockies game, which took place at Coors Field.  Tim Lincecum was pitching a perfect game into the 6th inning, when he gave up a bloop double to Seth Smith.  The Rockies knew that this lead-off double was probably going to be their one scoring opportunity, and according to the Giants, the Rockies attempted to score that run from second by giving Lincecum a "juiced" ball.  When Lincecum was thrown the new ball, he could tell something was wrong with it right away.  Take a look at this video where he throws the new ball back to the umpire and makes a comment about juiced baseballs.  Unfortunately I cannot embed the video, but you can check it out at this link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StY_mGM-lU4

Lincecum is one of the most laid back guys in the game.  I have watched almost every single game he has ever pitched and, even on bad days, I have never seen him get visibly angry.  This is what convinced me, not that the Rockies are definitely cheating, but that Major League Baseball has to do something.  According to sportingnews.com, MLB umpires will be keeping a close eye on the all the balls that come in and out of the humidor, but is this solution enough?  To really eliminate the doubts people are having about the Rockies, a third party needs to take over the task of placing balls in the humidor and giving them to the umpires.  Until the Rockies have no control over the balls being used in their home park, speculation about whether or not they are cheating will continue.

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

To DH or Not to DH, That is the Question?

Last week Alex Rodriguez finally hit his 600th home run, making him only the seventh player in MLB history to do so.  This incredible feat got me thinking, who will be the next 600 home run hitter?  According to baseball-reference.com's list of active home run leaders, there are a number of players who are close to hitting home run number 600 or on track to do so in the next five years.  At the top of this list is the 39 (soon to be 40) year old Jim Thome with 577 homers, 38 year olds Manny Ramirez and Chipper Jones with 554 and 434 home runs respectively, 35 year old Vladimir Guerrero with 428 home runs, and 30 year old Albert Pujols with 392 home runs.  If you ask me, Albert Pujols is a shoo-in for the 600 home run club (barring major injury) due to his almost 400 home runs at the young age of 30.  On the other hand, players like Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez and Chipper Jones are close, but age is a huge limiting factor now that steroids are seemingly out of the picture.  For a player like the injury-plagued Thome, who is only 23 home runs away from the big 6-0-0, the DH position is the only plausible way to reach the 600 club.  This got me thinking even further, what would happen to home run numbers if the DH position was eliminated?  Players like Thome, Guerrero and possibly Manny Ramirez will not reach 600 home runs without the designated hitter option, yet I am for the elimination of the DH and here are the reasons why:

Strike 1) Baseball is a game of offense and defense.  It is not a game of I am too old, injured, or slow to make a catch in the outfield, but I can still swing a bat and trot around the bases.  I think that once you reach the point where you cannot play the whole game, you should retire.  Yes, that means the average retirement age in baseball may drop, but if I wanted to watch people over 40 play a sport, I would watch Brett Favre or the World Series of Bingo.   

Strike 2) NL managing actually requires some managerial skills.  Let's face it, National League managers have a much more difficult job than American League managers.  NL skippers have to come up with creative ways to score runs and have to consider what to do in a 1-1 game with a man on second and the pitcher coming to bat.
                           
- What inning is it?
- Is my pitcher throwing well?
- What are the odds that he will be able to drive in this run?
- What are the odds that a pinch hitter will be able to drive in this run?
- How tired are the arms in my bullpen?

An AL skipper does not have to manage his game around when and in what situation his pitcher is hitting.  All an AL manager has to worry about is taking a pitcher out of the game if he gets into trouble or has thrown too many pitches.  Basically, winning a National League game takes more thought, planning, and strategy than winning an American League game.  I say its time to give the AL manager a job again.

Strike 3) Game length.  While I have no problem watching 4 hour baseball games, long games cannot hold the attention of the casual baseball fan.  The average game time has increased drastically over the past decade and the DH has a lot to do with that increase.  A typical at bat for a pitcher consists of swinging and missing at three straight pitches, or grounding out to second base.  That takes all of 20 seconds.  An at bat for a DH can include stepping out of the box after every pitch to do some idiosyncratic movement, fouling off 5 pitches in a row, and working a count to 3-2.  This at bat can take up to a minute, maybe more.  While a minute does not seem like a huge amount of time, the minutes add up over the course of a game.  Another problem causing longer games is run production.  According to baseball-reference.com, more runs are scored in AL games than NL games, and unless you have a 0-0 tie that goes 14 innings, higher scoring games take longer to complete than lower scoring games.  One explanation for the run production in the AL is the DH, whose main purpose is to drive in runs.  Time wise, baseball games have gotten out of control and it is causing people to stop tuning in.  While the DH is only one factor contributing to the problem, it is the one that is the easiest to fix.  The Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) would not stand for having a time limit between pitches and no one would stand for having a time limit between innings as less commercials would mean a loss in revenue.

For these reasons and more, the DH has got to go.  We need to return to pre-1973 and the way baseball was meant to be played; not with 300lb linebackers smacking home runs, but with 180lb gymnasts making diving plays and stealing bases.

To DH or not to DH, that is the question?  The answer?  Three strikes and you're out.  Its time to see pitchers in the batter's box again.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Mike Lowell's Home Run and A-Rod's Lack Thereof

Hi, I'm the Baseball Girl, or Lori as some people like to call me.  Tonight, as I was watching the Red Sox / Indians game and yelling at my TV, I realized I have no one to talk to and no outlet to express my frustration, jubilation or any of the other myriad feelings I encounter on a daily basis while watching baseball.  So, I decided to start a blog.  Let's see what happens...

The subjects of this blog entry are Mike Lowell and Alex Rodriguez.  First, Mike Lowell made his return to the Red Sox lineup today, which made me a very happy camper.  Lowell is my favorite player in all of Major League Baseball (with Tim Lincecum a close second), if not for his playing ability, for his great personality and sportsmanship.  An injury to Kevin Youkilis, as well as injuries to the Sox entire Major League starting lineup (who are they, the 2009 Mets?), left Terry Francona with no choice but to start Lowell at first base only 2 days after Lowell's future with the Red Sox organization seemed unlikely (again).  As Mike approached home plate for his first at bat, the crowd gave him a standing ovation and what did Mikey do?  He hit the first pitch he saw over the Green Monster for a home run. 
This is what frustrates me.  Why is Lowell constantly on the chopping block?  Yes, I understand he has been injured and cannot really be an every day player, but he is still an above average hitter and not too bad in the field, so platoon him.  The Red Sox have so many injuries that they need someone like Lowell right now, and yet, they are still trying to get rid of him.  Hopefully that changed tonight.  He not only drove in what would turn out to be the game winning RBI, but he made some great defensive plays at first base.  Theo Epstein needs to keep this guy.  This is the last season of his contract and he already said he will most likely retire this year, so just let him play where he loves to play and where the fans clearly love to watch him play. 

Also, speaking of Epstein...really Theo?  Jarrod Saltalamacchia is the best you could do at the trade deadline?  The Red Sox needed a bullpen pitcher, not an injury plagued catcher...the team already has enough of those.  But I digress...

On to Alex Rodriguez.  He hit home run number 599 twelve days ago and now holds the record for the most time between home runs 599 and 600 (although the fact that he is even qualified to hold that record is impressive as only 6 other players in baseball history have hit more than 600 home runs).  So you know what I say?  Leave A-Rod alone.  Stop with this whole "Road to 600" BS and just let the guy play baseball.  Switching out balls before his at-bats and bringing up home run 599 over and over again is just distracting, not only for A-Rod, but for the entire Yankee team.  Now I am no Yankee fan, but I do like A-Rod and I have liked him since his days with Seattle.  I even have a theory about him that involves Star Wars, Darth Vader, Anakin Skywalker, redemption, Scott Boras, and the Evil Emperor, but that's for another blog entry.  The point is, we have to let the guy play baseball.  He will eventually hit home run number 600.  Whether he does it tomorrow, 20 days from now or Sunday night when I am at the Yankees / Red Sox game (hint, hint...A-Rod, if you're reading this, hit it Sunday) he will hit number 600, so everyone should just back off. 

Last, but not least, I was reading Bill Simmons' article on ESPN.com's Page 2 today and he was explaining why the New England Sports Network's (NESN) ratings for Red Sox games have gone down this season.  One reason he gave was the large number of injured Red Sox, which goes without saying.  Unless you are a really die-hard fan, you are not going to watch a bunch of minor leaguers lose to the Kansas City Royals when you could be watching some other fabulous TV show like, oh, I don't know, America's Got Talent (that was sarcasm by the way.  I feel like I need to explain sarcasm for a while, until we get to know each other better).  Two other reasons Simmons listed for the decline were:

1) games have grown way too long over the past few years (almost every game is over 3 hours)
and 2) you never see a good old-fashioned fight anymore. 

Well, I think Simmon's should list the reasons why there is world hunger, violence in the Middle East, and global warming, because tonight, the night after I read his column, the Red Sox won a game in under 3 hours (it was 2:31 or so) and had a benches clearing brawl...so exciting! 

Until next time,

The Baseball Girl